Candidates Vie for RNC Chairmanship
Editor's Note: We are reprinting Marc Ambinder's "The RNC Chairman's Race: Updated Handicapping" from TheAtlantic.com in full here. We encourage you to visit the original.
All eyes are on the candidates for RNC chair as the party evaluates successes and failures in preparation for the 2010 election cycle.
Who will Sarah Palin endorse for RNC chair? Who's the Palin candidate? Saxby Chambliss's victory has certified the Palin wing of the party as the center of its gravity -- at least, that's how the GOP seems to be treating things. If Chambliss's words are indicative of GOP thinking, Republican activists and conservatives, then Palin must have a pretty tight grip.
The answer to the question is that Palin hasn't endorsed an RNC candidate, and her political advisers aren't saying whether she will.
Several candidates are in Washington, D.C. this week; they're scheduled to attend Vice President Cheney's Christmas Party, which will be held tomorrow night. Lots of RNC members attend, so it'll be a chance for one-on-one politicking.
Trial balloons have expanded and popped; Newt Gingrich continues to tell those who ask that he won't serve as RNC chair unless he's urged to run. Right now, RNC members aren't agitating in public for a new candidate, although it's tough to gaugue how pleased they are with the field.
Five candidates are actively courting support at the moment. RNC chairman Mike Duncan continues a listening tour of sorts; the others are South Carolina party chairman Katon Dawson, Michigan chair Saul Anuzis, former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele and ex-Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman.
To win, a candidate needs 85 of the 168 members of the committee, and the candidates come to the race with assets and liabilities. Anuzis is the only candidate who represents a state north of the Mason-Dixon line; he talks like a regular guy and knows how to frame economic issues. But he has no real record of success in Michigan, and some RNC members believe that he's a stalking horse for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential hopes. (Anuzis denies this.)
Dawson has been a very successful chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. But then again, it's hard not to be a successful GOP party chair in South Carolina. Dawson's campaign is very well organized, and he's been in the race the longest. That said, a large tranche of the party, including well-respected Southerners like Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), want the next chairman to come from some place other than the South. Barbour hasn't endorsed a candidate; he is friendly with Steele and Anuzis. Also, Dawson was until recently a member of an exclusionist club in South Carolina. Yes, that kind of exclusionist. When the mainstream media begins to pay attention to the race, they'll pay lots of attention to that fact especially if Dawson emerges as the frontrunner. That attention, in turn, might hurt Dawson's chances. The RNC membership is more sensitive to the party's brand than some might think.
Steele is the semi-celebrity candidate, owing to his Fox News contributorship, his Senate race, and his chairmanship of GOPAC. He's enlisted several prominent GOP consultants, including former RNC political director Blaise Hazelwood and media strategist Curt Anderson, to help his bid. There's a little bit of vendor envy between the Duncan factions and the Steele factions. Steele's biggest demerit isn't his past murkiness on abortion; it's his endorsement of the centrist Republican Leadership Council, a bugbear to party conservatives.
Steele is the best communicator of the bunch, although Dawson, Duncan and Anuzis have all been given informal tryouts on Fox News. He's got the clearest message; being black, he understands explicitly what the party has to do to expand its base without compromising its principals. Anuzis argues that Republicans need a tonal adjustment; what works for a Republican in Michigan isn't going to be what works for a Republican in Mississippi. He's also pushing technology and transparency. Duncan touts his fundraising successes and his knowledge of the party. On the other hand, he's definitely not the change candidate.
Before Saltsman can contemplate a solid coalition, he needs to get the support of fellow Tennesseans. Saltsman's relationship with Huckabee concerns some RNC members who don't want Huckabee to be their 2012 nominee.
A sixth potential candidate, Texas GOP chairman Tina Benkiser, has told associates that she would like to be the next co-chair of the party; the party will probably oblige.
Republicans expect at least one more high profile name to enter the race by week's end.
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